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As 2004 draws to a close, it is clear that market share has shifted into 2005. Some of last year's fastest-growing retailers, including mid-tier powerhouse Kohls and teen specialty chain Hot Topic, lost their sizzle, while others, including JCPenney, Neiman Marcus and TJX Companies, are on fire.

Some of these changes are a matter of fickle consumerism. For example, Hot Topic, once among the hottest alternative retailers in the mall, had a stunning 10% decline in comps during October, which should have been a stellar month for the famously Gothic chain. Meanwhile, competitor Urban Outfitters, which brings a more mainstream but still edgy offering to similar demographics, posted comps averaging 23% over the past 12 months.

JCPenney's gains and Kohl's uneven results during 2004 also indicate a shift in apparel purchasing habits. Kohl's narrow assortment of value-priced basics highlighting national brands served the company well during the recession. Now that consumers are shopping as a pastime again, JCPenney's broad and deep fashion-driven assortment has turned their heads. Kohl's has rushed to market with new proprietary brands, including Daisy Fuentes and Apt. 9, to try and gain young moms' dollars since spring. These new labels may be having their intended effect; while year to date, Kohl's comps are flat and JCPenney's are up 6.2%, during October, Kohl's comps rose 6% as JCPenney's rose 2.1%.

Meanwhile, discounters slowly but steadily continued to bring in more apparel business. In general, mass merchants' 2004 comps have been overwhelmingly positive, with increases averaging 2% to 4% for most companies.

Last month, Wal-Mart experienced a comp sales increase of 2.8%, while Target's rose 6%. Wal-Mart's fashion-focused George line continues expanding, with high-margin cashmere sweaters ready for holiday gift purchases. Meanwhile, Target's largest designer apparel initiative in its history, Isaac Mizrahi, continues growing.

While recent comps create a quick sketch of how apparel retailers are positioned into 2005, market research company Meridian's annual National Shopping Behavior study, conducted at the beginning of back-to-school season, also lends insights into the category.

According to Meridian's study, consumers are not happy with the apparel offering at discount stores, which means that there is still a major growth opportunity in this segment of the marketplace.

"Our survey indicated that, overwhelmingly, consumers are disappointed with assortments in the mass market," said Bob Gordman, executive managing director, strategic planning at Meridian.

The study indicates that selection is the No. 1 priority for apparel shoppers and not the reason they shop discount. Gordman even called fashion-forward Target's bluff, terming the limited selection of fashion SKUs under Isaac Mizrahi as "more hype than substance. When you put in two or three racks of Isaac Mizrahi and the customer comes in, it might be interesting, but it is really not enough of an assortment." To be fair, he noted, "If you look at the missy department of a Target store and look at the square footage, a Kohl's probably has five to seven times the space."

COPYRIGHT 2004 Reproduced with permission of the copyright holder. Further reproduction or distribution is prohibited without permission.
COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group


 
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